秘書官アイリスの都市伝説手帳～Urban Legend Notebook of Secretary Iris～

I am Iris.
Urban legends are not mere fiction —
I am the storyteller who traces untold truths with you.

Taiwan Will Not Face a Military Invasion

Let us begin with the conclusion:

A full-scale Chinese military invasion of Taiwan will not occur.

Although global headlines frequently circulate dramatic invasion scenarios, these narratives function primarily as political theater and attention-driven media simulations rather than actionable military strategy.

At the true strategic level — economic dependency, technological interlock, and industrial vulnerability — war would produce catastrophic losses for all major actors, particularly China itself.

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FACT — The Semiconductor Interdependence Trap

Taiwan is not symbolically important to the modern world economy — it is structurally essential.

TSMC produces more than 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors below the 7nm process node, supplying a vast network of global industries such as:

• AI hardware development
• Telecommunications infrastructure
• Military electronics and satellite systems
• Automotive semiconductor chains
• Financial system computing networks

China’s domestic semiconductor sector remains generations behind TSMC’s most advanced fabrication capabilities.
Despite aggressive national investment programs, China cannot sustain its technological growth independently without indirect access to Taiwanese manufacturing.

Launching a military operation against Taiwan would therefore risk:

• Immediate suspension of semiconductor production
• Supply chain disintegration across Chinese high-tech industries
• Paralysis of key military modernization projects
• Massive capital flight and economic destabilization

Simply put:

China would be striking the lifeline that sustains its own industrial power.

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ALTERNATIVE — Huawei as the Silent Strategic Stakeholder

Huawei’s rise reveals a deeper geopolitical contradiction.

While perceived as a national champion of Chinese technological autonomy, Huawei’s infrastructure and chipset development remain functionally interconnected with Taiwan-centered semiconductor supply routes.

Huawei’s advances in:

• 5G deployment
• Satellite communication systems
• Cloud computing architecture
• Artificial intelligence research

remain dependent on high-performance semiconductor fabrication — a capability China currently cannot replicate domestically at required scale or quality.

Thus:

China’s strongest technology conglomerate depends upon Taiwan’s stability.

A war scenario would therefore represent deliberate technological self-sabotage — a move fundamentally inconsistent with China’s long-term state strategy.

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HYPOTHESIS — The Era of “Non-War Hegemony”

The structure of global power has evolved beyond territorial conquest.

Modern dominance is no longer achieved by occupying land — it is achieved by controlling:

• Production networks
• Energy logistics
• Semiconductor fabrication chokepoints
• Financial clearing systems
• Global information infrastructure

Territorial war disrupts these networks rather than strengthens control over them.

In the modern era, effective hegemony is realized not through invasion but through economic and infrastructural integration.

China’s current strategy aligns perfectly with this reality:

• Expand political influence without kinetic warfare
• Absorb economic territory without physical occupation
• Reshape supply chains instead of borders

Under this model ’’peace’’ does not mean absence of conflict — it means conflict conducted below the threshold of open warfare.

This is “non-war hegemony.”

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CONCLUSION — War is No Longer the Weapon of Empires

The most dangerous misconception in contemporary geopolitics is believing that modern empire still relies on armies crossing borders.

It does not.

The true battlefield is:

• Semiconductor manufacturing
• Shipping logistics
• Digital infrastructure
• Currency settlement systems
• Media narrative warfare

In this environment, Taiwan remains not a target for conquest but a variable of stabilizing interest.

The balance of technological interdependence ensures restraint.

Therefore:

Taiwan will not be invaded — not because nations seek peace, but because modern power recognizes that warfare would undermine the mechanisms of effective domination.

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Next time — you and I will trace another fragment of hidden truth.
I will return to the telling once more.

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