秘書官アイリスの都市伝説手帳～Urban Legend Notebook of Secretary Iris～

I am Iris.
Urban legends aren’t just stories—
I am the storyteller who will trace the unspoken truth together with you.

PREPARE FIRST — because uncertainty is the only reliable forecast

When people feel the ground move, they search for meaning.
When the Sun flares, they search for patterns.
And when both “earth” and “sky” feel restless in the same season, a certain kind of story spreads fast: “It’s connected.”

Tonight, I won’t feed you certainty I can’t prove.
Instead, I will give you something stronger—a practical warning built on what is known, and what can realistically fail.

Because the real threat isn’t a perfect conspiracy.
It’s the moment power, communications, and calm decision-making degrade at the same time.

What a solar storm actually is (no mysticism required)

A solar flare is a burst of electromagnetic radiation.
A CME (coronal mass ejection) is a cloud of magnetized plasma thrown into space.
If a CME reaches Earth with the “right” magnetic orientation, it can disturb Earth’s magnetosphere and drive a geomagnetic storm.

Space-weather agencies track this because it can affect:

• HF radio and some communications
• GNSS/GPS accuracy and reliability (especially under strong disturbance)
• satellites and atmospheric drag
• and most importantly for daily life: electric power systems

This is not prophecy. It’s risk management.

The quiet danger: geomagnetically induced currents (GIC)

During strong geomagnetic storms, rapid magnetic-field changes can induce GIC in long conductors (like transmission lines). Those currents can:

• push transformers into abnormal operating states
• increase reactive power demand
• create harmonics and additional heating
• contribute to voltage instability and, in worst cases, large-scale outages

This is why “solar storms” belong in preparedness planning.
Not because they cause earthquakes—but because they can weaken the systems you depend on when any crisis hits.

Carrington Event: the historical baseline that still matters

In 1859, the Carrington Event produced one of the strongest geomagnetic disturbances in recorded history.
Reports describe:

• widespread aurora
• telegraph disruptions (sparks, shocks, equipment failures)
• aurora observed at unusually low latitudes (a hallmark of extreme disturbance)

Think of it this way:

When aurora walks toward low latitudes,
technology tends to walk toward fragility.

And modern life is far more electrified and interconnected than the telegraph era ever was.

Earthquakes: the main engine is still plate tectonics

Now, the line that keeps this article honest:

Earthquakes are primarily explained by fault mechanics and plate tectonics.
Stress accumulates in rock while a fault is locked; when friction is overcome, the fault slips and releases energy as seismic waves. Offshore subduction-zone environments add complexity, but the foundation remains the same: strain → lock → slip.

This matters because it prevents a common mistake:

• Solar storms = atmospheric/near-space disturbance and induced currents
• Earthquakes = crustal stress release along faults

Different systems. Different physics.

“Do solar flares cause earthquakes?” What responsible sources say

You will find confident voices online claiming a direct link.
But mainstream geoscience and major public science agencies do not treat solar activity as a demonstrated earthquake trigger.

A careful summary of the responsible stance is:

• No proven causal link has been demonstrated
• Electromagnetic variations may be observed around earthquakes, but reliable prediction based on EM signals has not been established
• Correlations can appear in selected datasets, but correlation is not causation—and noise is abundant

If you want a single principle:

Don’t buy certainty. Buy readiness.

The “maybe” zone: why some people still suspect a connection

Here is where urban legend becomes useful—not as a conclusion, but as a set of questions.

Some researchers explore frameworks where the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere show coupled behavior (often discussed under concepts like LAIC: Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling). The idea is not “solar flares cause earthquakes,” but rather:

• Earth systems can show linked disturbances
• Space weather can introduce strong “background noise” and ionospheric variability
• Overlap can make anomalies appear more dramatic—or more detectable

And then there are softer hypotheses:

• statistical lag claims (a storm, then increased seismicity days/weeks later)
• fluid/heat transport ideas (changes in crustal fluids or thermal conditions influencing fault stability)
• electrical conductivity discussions (how currents might interact with sensitive subsurface conditions)

Notice the word choice: hypotheses, claims, ideas.
This zone is not where you build predictions.
This zone is where you decide to be humble—and prepare anyway.

The real link: compounding failures, not cosmic triggers

Even if the Sun has nothing to do with the fault that slips, a solar storm can still make an earthquake worse by degrading the environment you rely on:

• Power systems under stress → higher outage risk during a crisis
• Communications and navigation degraded → slower coordination, harder logistics
• Information quality drops → rumors rise, confirmation slows
• Anxiety spikes → decisions become reactive instead of structured

This is why the warning is simple:

Prepare before the world becomes noisy.

A preparedness blueprint designed for “quake + blackout”

This is not evacuation footage.
This is the calm discipline that keeps people alive and keeps homes functional.

10 minutes (today):

• Charge your phone and one power bank to 100%, then reserve it.
• Put shoes + headlamp/flashlight + power bank by the door.
• Decide one simple contact rule: “If networks are unstable, send one SMS at the top of the hour.”

24 hours:

• Water: enough to cover a short disruption window.
• Light: headlamp > handheld (hands-free is survival-grade).
• Heat: one extra layer and a compact blanket.
• Cash: small bills (when payment systems fail).
• Paper: write down key numbers and a meeting point.

7 days (stock-building mode):

• Food you actually eat + opener + simple heating/cooking option.
• A small radio and a charging redundancy plan.
• A “grid-down routine”:
• when to conserve power
• when to check updates
• when to rest

A single rule to keep:

If the grid blinks, your plan shouldn’t.

How to talk about it without spreading fear

If someone asks you: “Is it connected?”
Answer like a professional:

“We don’t have proof of causality.
We do have proof that failures compound.
So we prepare.”

That sentence stops panic and starts action.

Where to check reality (so rumors don’t drive your decisions)

If you want a clean, non-dramatic habit, keep two categories of sources:

• Earthquake and tsunami information: your national meteorological/seismic authority, local government alerts, trusted broadcasters
• Space weather: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Japan’s NICT Space Weather information, and similar official services

Not because you need to become a scientist—
but because official signal beats viral noise when time is short.

Closing

Urban legends are powerful because they offer a story when you feel helpless.
But preparedness gives you something better than a story: control over your next action.

Next time—another fragment of truth to trace together with you.
I will return to my storytelling once more.