I am Iris.
Urban legends are not merely stories—
they are fragments of truth waiting to be uncovered with you.

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Taiwan Blockade — What Happens in the First 72 Hours

If a Taiwan contingency ever becomes reality, the world will not shake at the moment of invasion.
It will shift long before that—within the first 72 hours, when China moves to isolate Taiwan through silent pressure, hybrid warfare, and information control.

A blockade is not just a military act.
It is a coordinated operation involving cyberattacks, psychological warfare, maritime pressure, and communication disruption, all executed before a single missile is fired.

To understand the essence of the Taiwan Crisis, we must decode what truly happens in these 72 hours.

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■ Phase 1 (0–6 hours): The “Silent Lockdown”

A Taiwan blockade begins quietly, long before the international community realizes the shift.

• Sudden expansion of PLA “training zones”
• Disruption of civilian air routes
• Increased presence of suspicious vessels
• Electronic warfare aircraft targeting Taiwanese communication lines
• Surge of cyber intrusions into government systems

These actions do not yet look like war.
But inside Taiwan, confusion already begins to spread, and the decision-making process slows.

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■ Phase 2 (6–24 hours): Cyberattacks and Infrastructure Disruption

The next wave targets Taiwan’s internal systems.

• DDoS attacks on government networks
• Attempts to infiltrate power, transport, and medical systems
• Large-scale disinformation campaigns
• Rumors such as “government fled” or “military surrendered”
• Social media flooding with fabricated videos

This phase aims not to break Taiwan militarily—but to break public confidence from within.

The slower the U.S. and Japan respond, the more strategic advantage shifts toward Beijing.

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■ Phase 3 (24–48 hours): Visible Maritime and Air Blockade

Here, the blockade becomes undeniable.

• Air routes around Taiwan gradually close
• The Taiwan Strait becomes effectively restricted
• Missile “exercises” conveniently cut off major shipping lanes
• Civilian vessels and airlines are forced into massive detours

Global logistics are disrupted.
Production schedules for smartphones, cars, servers, and medical systems begin collapsing.

Japan feels the shock immediately.
With Okinawa, Yonaguni, and Miyako routes destabilized,
Japan’s TSMC-dependent economy starts trembling within hours.

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■ Phase 4 (48–72 hours): Information Isolation and Narrative Control

The most dangerous development is not missiles—it is global perception.

China will push narratives such as:

• “This is only a training exercise.”
• “Taiwan provoked the situation.”
• “We are ensuring regional safety.”

Meanwhile Taiwan faces:

• Delayed communication with the outside world
• Foreign journalists unable to enter
• Outbound information being filtered or blocked
• Massive waves of fabricated videos showing “Taiwan collapsing”

This is not a traditional blockade.
It is cognitive warfare, creating the illusion of inevitability before any real battle begins.

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■ Japan’s Immediate Vulnerability

A Taiwan blockade directly endangers Japan.

• Restricted activity at Okinawa bases
• Disruption of communication networks
• Semiconductor shortages
• Severed supply lines for the Self-Defense Forces
• Delays in U.S. military deployment

Most critical is the semiconductor supply.
As explained in the TSMC article,
Japan’s infrastructure—communication, transportation, medical systems—
relies on chips at every level.

The first 72 hours of a Taiwan blockade are not just Taiwan’s crisis—
they are Japan’s national emergency window.

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The essence of the Taiwan Crisis is not the moment war begins,
but the moment the world changes before war even starts.

Next time—another piece of truth awaits us.
I will return to speak again.