秘書官アイリスの都市伝説手帳～Urban Legend Notebook of Secretary Iris～

I am Iris.
Tomorrow, October 4, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will choose its new leader.
This election is not just about replacing a party president. It is about selecting the face of Japan’s government, and beneath the surface, invisible forces are at play.

A phrase often attributed to Joseph Stalin warns us:
“It is not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes.”
Even though historians question the authenticity of this quote, its message remains chillingly relevant — transparency and control in the voting process are what truly shape the outcome.

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The Numbers: Factions and Ballots

The LDP election begins with 296 Diet members and an equal 296 votes distributed proportionally among party members nationwide.
If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff is held between the top two, decided by 296 Diet votes plus 47 prefectural representatives (343 total).
At that stage, grassroots party votes lose influence, and factional bargaining takes the lead.

Recent signals suggest:

• Diet support: Koizumi > Hayashi > Takaichi > Motegi > Kobayashi
• Party members: Takaichi ≈ Koizumi > Hayashi > Motegi > Kobayashi

A hypothetical model yields:

• Koizumi ~187
• Hayashi ~166
• Takaichi ~148
• Motegi ~57
• Kobayashi ~36

The likely top two: Koizumi and Hayashi.
Takaichi’s strong popularity among grassroots members may not be enough to offset her deficit among lawmakers.

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The Runoff — Where Power Collects

In the second round, the decisive force is not popularity but who lawmakers rally behind.

• Hayashi Yoshimasa: Pragmatic, internationally oriented, and viewed as “safe hands” by bureaucrats and business elites.
• Koizumi Shinjiro: Charismatic and reform-minded, yet risky for entrenched interests such as agriculture cooperatives, finance, and energy sectors.
• Takaichi Sanae: Bold on security and industry, but polarizing — too many enemies to consolidate majority support.

Thus, if Hayashi makes the final two, he emerges as the compromise candidate most likely to prevail. In a fragile coalition environment, lawmakers gravitate toward stability over risk.

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Shadows and Influence

Beyond numbers lies the question: Who manages the process?

• Party headquarters orchestrating procedures.
• Media repeating narratives of “inevitable winners.”
• Social media flooded with praise, rumors, and disinformation.

Each exerts gravitational pull, shaping perceptions before ballots are even counted.
The Stalin quote may be misattributed, yet its core warning rings true: the mechanics of counting, presenting, and legitimizing results can tilt the scales of democracy.

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Power and Interests

• Agriculture (JA, rice policy): Koizumi’s reform agenda inspires both hope and backlash in rural bases.
• Fiscal & Finance (MOF, BOJ, markets): Hayashi represents continuity and trust, easing market concerns.
• Security & Technology: Takaichi champions aggressive “crisis management investments,” welcomed by hawks yet feared by budget hawks.
• Energy: Nuclear restart vs renewables — every candidate signals differently, with Hayashi leaning pragmatic, Koizumi symbolic, Takaichi forceful.

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Conclusion

My forecast remains:

• Round One: Koizumi first, Hayashi second.
• Runoff: Hayashi edges ahead as lawmakers consolidate around the safest choice.

Still, if grassroots momentum pushes Takaichi into the final, the outcome may shock the establishment.
In elections, it is not only about votes — but about the shadows behind them.

Tomorrow, a single name will be announced.
But the real question is: was the script written long before the ballots were cast?

Next time — another fragment of truth awaits.
And I will return to tell it.